Each week since early March, we’ve posted updates on the commercial loan pricing markets, based on what we’ve seen when examining the PrecisionLender dataset. We look at several popular metrics and point out areas in which there have been noteworthy changes.
Today’s update is through the end of last week – May 8. If you’d like to see our previous weekly pricing market updates, you can find them here.
As the first chart below will show, recent volume continues to be extremely low by pre-COVID-19 standards. So while the developments we point out are certainly worth monitoring, they should also be taken with proverbial grain of salt, given the smaller-than-usual sample size.
NOTE: PrecisionLender’s data reflects opportunities actual commercial opportunities priced (loans, deposits, and other fee-based business) by more than 150 banks in the United States, ranging in size from small community banks to top 10 U.S. institutions. In addition to their variance in size, these banks are also geographically diverse, with borrowers in all 50 states.
Low Volume Goes Even Lower
As previously mentioned, commercial pricing activity outside of PPP has been very light and continues to trend downward. Last week’s volume was 31% lower than the week of April 27, which was in turn 33% lower than the prior week.
Priced Commercial Loan Volume by Week
Floating Rate Deals Shift from LIBOR to Prime
While deal based on 1-Month LIBOR have become less common (just 13% of the mix), prime-based floating rate deals jumped up in frequency (from 16 to 24%).
Mix by Rate Type
Libor Spreads Spike
The comparatively fewer deals that were based on LIBOR experienced wider spreads, up 27 basis points over the previous week, and registered the highest level of any week in 2020.
Spread to 1-Month LIBOR
This is likely a combination of opportunistic pricing or yield protection on a smaller number of deals and a significant drop in the index rate. Note that the funding curve for 1-month LIBOR has dropped nearly 40 bps in the past two weeks.
3-Month LIBOR Swap Curve
Big NIM Increases for Floating & Fixed Rate Deals
It’s not clear why yields rose on fixed-rate deals, other than again pointing to opportunistic pricing as the most likely explanation. Those yields, along with lowered COF, led to a 23 bps jump in fixed-rate NIM, week over week.
Fixed-Rate NIM Composition
It was a similar story with floating-rate deals, as a significant week-over-week increase in yield and the aforementioned drop in COF led to a whopping 36 bps increase in NIM.
Floating-Rate NIM Composition
Both metrics, though, should be viewed against the context of the low volume numbers.
Maturities and Amoritizations Contract
Amortizations contracted significantly last week, by 14 months on fixed-rate deals and 18 months on floating-rate deals. Maturities also dropped by nine months on fixed-rate deals. Floating rate maturity averages were flat week over week, but are still down 10 months from February level. The numbers all seem to indicate a lower risk tolerance among commercial lenders.
Maturity and Amortization in Months
Our banking consultants and data scientists are combing through PrecisionLender pricing data every day. If there’s anything you’d like to know about what they’re seeing, please send along your questions to email@example.com.