Since early March, we’ve posted regular updates on the commercial loan pricing markets, based on what we’ve seen when examining the PrecisionLender dataset. We look at several popular metrics and point out areas in which there have been noteworthy changes.
Today’s update is through the end of last week – June 12. If you’d like to see our previous weekly pricing market updates, you can find them here.
We track many more metrics each week than are spotlighted in these posts. The ones that didn’t “make the cut,” usually don’t get displayed because there’s either a) nothing much new to say about them, or b) the data is too murky and needs a few more weeks of monitoring before it can be shared.
That said, if you have questions about metrics that have appeared in previous posts, but not this latest one, please reach out us at to email@example.com.
NOTE: PrecisionLender’s data reflects actual commercial opportunities priced (loans, deposits, and other fee-based business) by more than 150 banks in the United States, ranging in size from small community banks to top 10 U.S. institutions. In addition to their variance in size, these banks are also geographically diverse, with borrowers in all 50 states.
Pricing Volume Stays Steady
Pricing volume ticked down slightly week over week (down 7%) but is still similar to the Jan/Feb run rate and above April/March levels.
Average Weekly Priced Commercial Loan Volume
LIBOR Spreads More Variable Than Prime Spreads
We continue to see more week-to-week movement in LIBOR Spreads than in Prime, which has moved in a more narrow range.
The Spread to 1-Month LIBOR moved up 11 bps last week. Its June average (2.64%) is roughly 25 bps higher than Jan/Feb levels and is 16 bps higher than the year-to-date average.
Average Weekly Spread to 1-Month LIBOR
Meanwhile spreads to Prime has remained in a 10 bps range since April. June spreads are slightly higher than the YTD average.
Spread to Prime
Swap Curve Shifts Downward After 3-Year Mark
The 3-Month LIBOR Swap curve was unchanged from last week until the 3-year (36-month) mark. At that point, it shifted downward, with the 30-year rate for June 12 roughly 20 bps down from the previous Friday. The FHBL Composite curve had a similar trajectory.
That shift did not show up in the COF for fixed-rate loans (more on this below). While daily variability is reflected in these curves, banks should examine their all-in funding curve regularly, to assess the appropriateness of adjustments and/or liquidity amounts.
3-Month LIBOR Swap Curve
Fixed-Rate NIM Rises Slightly
Yields on fixed-rate loans rose 10 bps week-over-week, while COF (as mentioned previously) was largely static, rising just 2 bps. The resulting NIM (2.63%) is still within the narrow range established in May, after the jump up from March/April.
REMINDER: In the PrecisionLender solution, NIM is an interest-rate risk and liquidity risk-adjusted metric, based on incremental asset yield and marginal funding costs.
Fixed-Rate Net Interest Margin Composition
DDA Volume on the Rise
We checked back in on deposit volumes and found that businesses are showing increased liquidity. DDA volume, a good proxy for liquidity, have risen steadily since early April, up approximately 30% over the past two months.
PPP funding is likely a significant factor in this increase. We'll continue to monitor these numbers to see what happens as we get further away from the PPP rush in April and what that tells us about the liquid balances of commercial clients.
DDA Volume by Week
Our banking consultants and data scientists are combing through PrecisionLender pricing data every day. If there’s anything you’d like to know about what they’re seeing, please send along your questions to firstname.lastname@example.org.